Counterfactual analysis of causation: is C a cause of E just in case E counterfactually depends on C, perhaps through a chain of such dependencies?

David Lewis, answered from the texts and cited to the page.

The position in brief

The basic case: C causes E when E counterfactually depends on C — that is, when had C not occurred, E would not have occurred either. Counterfactual dependence between distinct events is sufficient for causation between them in the simple case; the analysis extends to more complex cases by allowing chains of counterfactual dependence, so that C causes E whenever there is a sequence C, D₁, D₂, ..., E with each step a case of counterfactual dependence on its predecessor.12

The counterfactuals are evaluated by similarity-of-worlds in the system Counterfactuals (1973) provides, with the four-condition similarity metric of "Counterfactual Dependence and Time's Arrow" (1979) keeping the asymmetry between past and future right — we hold the past mostly fixed, accept a small miracle at the time of antecedent realization, and minimize subsequent miracles.3

The 1973 chain-of-dependence form handles early pre-emption (the back-up assassin) cleanly; it struggles with late pre-emption (the wood-splitting case, the truck and the fragile vase) where the back-up process is cut off by the effect itself rather than before. In "Causation as Influence" (2000) I revised: C influences E if there is a pattern of counterfactual dependence relating substantial ranges of variations in how/when/whether C occurs to ranges of variations in how/when/whether E occurs, and causation is a chain of such influences.

The influence formulation handles late pre-emption while preserving the counterfactual-dependence intuition that underwrote the 1973 analysis.45

Sources

  1. As before, we must take an ancestral to ensure that causation will come out transitive; thereby providing not only for chains of stepwise dependence, but also for chains of stepwise quasi-dependence, or mixed chains. To this end we could redefine a causal chain as a sequence of two or more events, with either dependence or quasi- dependence at each step.
    Part 6: Causation, pp. 206–207
  2. Perhaps there are special reasons in special cases— but then these may be cases of backward causal dependence. PREEMPTION Suppose that c1 occurs and causes e; and that c2 also occurs and does not cause e, but would have caused e if c↑ had been absent. Thus c2 is a potential alternate cause of e, but is preempted by the actual cause c1.
    Part 6: Causation, pp. 171–172
  3. See also Fred I. Dretske, "Laws of Next, counterfactuals. I take them to be governed by similarity of worlds, according to the analysis given in "Counterfactuals and Com parative Possibility," in this volume.
    Philosophical Papers Vol II, pp. xii–xiii
  4. Therefore I shall not follow the popular strategy of approaching events by way of nominalisations. Events made in the image of nominalisations are right for some purposes, but not for mine. When I introduce nominalisations to denote events, as I shall, it will not be analysis of natural language but mere stipulative definition.
    Part 6: Causation, p. 242
  5. Let us see where this one leads us. A process in a region may exhibit a pattern of counterfactual depen dence that makes it causal, according to my original analysis.
    Part 6: Causation, p. 206

Where the argument is made

  • 'Causation' (Journal of Philosophy 1973, reprinted in Philosophical Papers Vol II with postscripts) — the foundational 1973 statement
  • Counterfactuals (1973, Blackwell) for the underlying possible-worlds semantics for the counterfactual conditional and the similarity-of-worlds machinery
  • 'Counterfactual Dependence and Time's Arrow' (Noûs 1979, reprinted in Phil Papers Vol II) for the four-condition system of similarity that keeps the asymmetry of counterfactual dependence right
  • 'Causation as Influence' (Journal of Philosophy 2000) for the late revision in response to late pre-emption cases

How the argument was received

The most influential analysis of causation in late-twentieth- century analytic philosophy, organizing literature still generating new arguments today. The principal rivals are regularity theories (the contemporary descendants of Mackie's INUS-conditions analysis), process theories (Salmon, Dowe — causation as the transfer of a conserved quantity), interventionist theories (Woodward, Pearl — causation as what would happen under hypothetical interventions), and probabilistic theories. The pre- emption case literature (Hall, Schaffer, McDermott, Hitchcock, Hall-Paul) tests every analysis against the same set of standard examples — late pre-emption, trumping, symmetric overdetermination, causation by omission and double prevention. The 2000 "Influence" revision is the official late position; some of the literature treats the 1973 chain-of-dependence view as the canonical Lewis line and the influence view as a refinement under pressure.